One Hundred Years
As of 26 July 2026
As of 26 July 2026
The One Hundred Years page compiles US stock and bond market risk and return data since January 1926 in single place.
The data contained on this page have formed the basis of several articles and posts on MFO and MFOP on long-term performance and cycles
(e.g., Strong June Propels New Bull Market [July 2023]). The page will be updated
quarterly, at least, in hopes of providing a helpful reference for individual investors, financial advisors, and fund managers.
Complementary historical data can be found on the Sixty Years and Cycles pages.
The charts are organized under the heading US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926. Here is the summary of contents: SP500 returns before March 1957 use so-called S&P 90 Index. Returns before 1960 are from Professor Amit Goyal. All other returns are from Lipper Global Data Feed. Allocation metrics use the long government bond index [LGOVBND, like TLT].
All calculations use month-ending returns and results are available by using MultiSearch, the main tool on MFOP.
Click on any chart to expand. Click on icon near upper right corner to download a PNG image file.
For reference, our series on long-term returns and market cycles for US equities, which includes methodology, is summarized here:
The timing method works very well on low frequency drawdowns, like the GFC. The method did not do as well in 2010's or 2020's. Still, it has beaten buy-and-hold over past 100 years.
Complementary historical data can be found on the Sixty Years and Cycles pages.
The charts are organized under the heading US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926. Here is the summary of contents: SP500 returns before March 1957 use so-called S&P 90 Index. Returns before 1960 are from Professor Amit Goyal. All other returns are from Lipper Global Data Feed. Allocation metrics use the long government bond index [LGOVBND, like TLT].
All calculations use month-ending returns and results are available by using MultiSearch, the main tool on MFOP.
Click on any chart to expand. Click on icon near upper right corner to download a PNG image file.
For reference, our series on long-term returns and market cycles for US equities, which includes methodology, is summarized here:
- The Great Normalization [July 2022]
- Early Cycle Metrics [December 2021]
- Super Bull Markets [November 2021]
- A Thirty Year Proposition [September 2020]
- A Presumptive Bear Ends an 11-Year Bull Run [April 2020]
- Mediocrity and Frustration [November 2014]
- Ten Market Cycles [March 2014]
- Timing Method Performance Over Ten Decades [July 2013]
The timing method works very well on low frequency drawdowns, like the GFC. The method did not do as well in 2010's or 2020's. Still, it has beaten buy-and-hold over past 100 years.
US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926 - Basic Charts
US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926 - Rolling Charts
US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926 - Basic Tables
US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926 - Allocation Tables
US Market Risk & Return Metrics Since 1926 - Timing Comparison
