Thank you all for participating in our 2026 Mid-Year Review!
Here is link to chart deck.
And here’s link to video recording. Warning: The beginning and end of the video is more of a chat session with my dear colleague (and super MFOP user) Lynn Bolin about the site and markets.
Special thanks to Lynn for his kind words and shared perspectives.
And to William for reminding us that DFA’s chairman is David Booth.
And to Noah for reminding us that Rob Arnott’s tactical allocation funds are All Asset (PAAIX) and All Asset All Authority (PAUIX).
And to Elie for the question about Richard Bernstein’s tactical allocation funds. Looks like they are available only through RBA’s separately managed accounts that follow ETF model portfolios, like “Global Risk-Balanced Moderate ETF Strategy.” I thought maybe we could create a Janus Henderson RBA subfamily, which we could then rate, like we do with PIMCO RA (Research Associates) and Morgan Stanley Counterpoint Global, but no such luck. In any case, looks like model portfolios are a seriously big business today.
And thanks to Alfred for always being there.
Please don’t hesitate to reach-out for a one-on-one session with questions, recommendations, or just to chat. Something good always comes of such sessions.
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All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, flows, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium on Saturday, 1 August (and updated again yesterday on 8 August), reflecting performance through July 2026. Flow tool updates daily.
This coming Tuesday, 11 August, we will be conducting our mid-year webinar to review funds and the site. If you can make it, please join us. Two sessions are scheduled. Register here for the first session (11 a.m. Pacific / 2 p.m. Eastern) and/or here for the second session (2 p.m. Pacific / 5 p.m. Eastern).
We will use MultiSearch Pre-Set screens and other custom criteria to review fund performance year to date in 2026. MultiSearch is our main tool.
We will also review many new pages: Ten Market Cycles, One Hundred Years, Sixty Years, Fund Demographics, ETF Overtake Watch.
Plus new features, including:
- Added Excess Return, Real Return, Beta, and Calmar Metrics to Portfolios tool.
- Added Real Return, which is return minus Consumer Price Index (MFO convenience symbol: CPIU) over period evaluated, to Search Criteria in MultiSearch tool.
- Lipper added six new fund categories: Alternative Cryptocurrency, Option Income Strategies, Global Allocation, and Target Maturity for Corporate, Government & Treasury and Tax-Exempt Bond Funds. See MFO Category Summary.
- New export options for MFO charts, including chart .png and page .pdf formats.
- Added Custom Period Display option to Portfolios tool, enabling users to compute risk and return metrics for any month-ending period back to 200711, which marks the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis GFC market cycle.
The latest cycle, coined The Great Normalization, began January 2022 with a bear market that lasted 9 months. The decline appeared to be in response to COVID-related inflation, a series of quick rate hikes by the Fed, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ironically, despite the negative sentiment, the economy did not enter an official recession.
The bull market that followed, which in retrospect began October 2022, is now 46 months old, approaching the 4-year mark. Since then, through last Friday, the S&P 500 has advanced 125%, or 72% above its previous high.
Bonds, on the other hand, especially long bonds, have retreated. So far, this decade has been the worst for long-bonds in 100 years. TLT is off “just” 4% YTD, but that follows annual returns of -8% in 2024, -31% in 2022 (worst year ever), and -5% in 2021.
I attended once again Morningstar’s Investment Conference 2026 in Chicago. Always well done. You can read more in the current MFO piece Investing Crossroads?
As always, if you see anything amiss or have suggestions for improvement, reach out and I will respond soonest.
