The Decline Continues

All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium Tuesday, 3 May, reflecting performance through April 2022.

 

After a brief respite in March, markets continued to sell off in April, especially tech equity and nearly all bonds.

 

The chart below once again depicts monthly and year-to-date (YTD) performance of the 11 State Street Sector ETFs, along with the S&P 500 ETF SPY. We are about 7 percentage points shy of bear market territory … or, two more days like 5 May.

 

 

If there is a silver lining, value funds appear to be holding-up much better than growth funds, as depicted in the table below for the 9 Morningstar Barometer ETFs. If you ignore April, value funds actually have some positive momentum the past 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.

 

 

No relief in bond land. Below find YTD performance for 10 bond funds, each representing highest AUM in their category. Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) is down 9.3%, worse than during the Great Financial Crisis. That said, it remains an MFO Great Owl … one of best performers in category.

 

 

Other than a pure energy bet or market short, is anyone getting it right this year? Three equity funds David recommended a decade ago:

 

A call-out to a few other equity funds, which remain positive YTD:

  • Eagle Capital Growth (GRF),
  • Auer Focus (AUERX),
  • Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (VAMO),
  • WisdomTree US High Dividend (DHS),
  • Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SPHD).

 

Just 9 out of 1200 bond mutual funds remain positive, excluding specialty income. And of those, only 3 have returned more than half-a-percent:

  • Fairholme Focus Income (FOCIX),
  • Catalyst Income and Multi-Strategy I (ACXIX),
  • Eaton Vance Short Duration Inflation-Protected Income I (EIRRX).

 

If there is a bright spot, perhaps it’s the alternative funds, particularly managed futures. AQR, which for years has delivered mediocre performance, boasts nine alternatives with double-digit returns, as depicted in YTD table below. Over the 12 months, 91% of AQR’s 23 funds have beaten their peers. Much better than 55%, its 5-year record.

 

 

For those of you enjoying MFO Charts, we’ve added a log-scale option, as well as ability to plot absolute instead of relative performance, which comes in handy with T-Bill/T-Note rates (see below). When rates are presented in this fashion, it’s hard to understand what all the fuss is about … kind of!

 

 

Lots more chart and quick analysis options planned in weeks ahead.

 

If you see anything amiss, let us know and we will respond soonest.

MFO Charts Now Live with February 2022 Ratings Update

All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium Friday, 4 March, reflecting performance through February 2022.

 

The year is off to a poor start with most equity and bond funds retracting in the face of inflation, rising rates, and the crisis in Ukraine. Not exactly the normalcy we had anticipated after two years of Covid-19.

 

The table below depicts year-to-date (YTD) performance of the 11 State Street Sector ETFs along with the S&P 500 ETF SPY. Only energy is up, with all other sectors paring gains made over current market cycle, which began January 2020. Most sectors are now below their 10-month Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

 


 

The screenshot below depicts growth of these same ETFs: highlighting sudden retractions of March 2020 when Covid-19 emerged, then rebounding just as rapidly and growing until December 2021. Interactive Charts is a new tool found in MultiSearch via the Analyze button, along with Compare, Correlate, Rolling, Trend, Ferguson, and Calendar Year and Fixed Period Performance. You can read more about the chart tool in our March Commentary: “Introducing MFO Charts.”

 


 

Finally, a screenshot depicting similar YTD retractions across bond and mixed asset reference funds. Results for both the sector ETFs and these five reference funds are among the many Pre-Set Screens available in MultiSearch.

 


 

Look for other chart options in weeks ahead, along with more direct access to all Analyze tools via the home page to facilitate quicker access and mobile device usage.

 

Please enjoy the latest data and features.

21 In 21 Plus Annuity Modeling and New Taper Periods

All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium on New Year’s Day, reflecting performance through December 2021. We plan to post the volatile January 2022 results late tomorrow. Nearly all funds should be included in tomorrow’s “incremental” drop from Refinitiv, but any omissions will be incorporated in the full monthly drop on Saturday.

 

We hosted our year-end review webinar on Tuesday, 4 January. Thank you again to all who participated! I benefit from these sessions just as much as I hope you do. It was the third consecutive year in which most domestic equity funds did well, enjoying last of the Fed’s “Infinity” round of Quantitative Easing. Energy funds finally recovered. Most bond and emerging market funds struggled in anticipation of tapering and rising rates. Here are links to chart deck and video recording.

 

Of the 6,700 mutual funds available in the US, only 21 incurred no drawdown in 2021 (based on month ending total return, excluding money market funds), while delivering return exceeding their dividend yield, nominally. And, of those, only 17 offer yields greater than a 1-year CD, which is about 0.60%. Three of those (RSIIX, CBLDX, and DGFFX) are advised or sub-advised by David Sherman of Cohanzick Management, whom David Snowball has championed for years. Here are the 21 mutual funds, sorted first by category and then return:

 

Continue reading “21 In 21 Plus Annuity Modeling and New Taper Periods”

Drawdown Occurs (Almost) Every Calendar Year

On Friday, 3 December, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through November 2021. Refinitiv should drop month-ending December data, capping 2021, about 5 a.m. Pacific time on New Year’s Day. With luck, we will post year-end fund results tomorrow evening.

 

We added a couple of features to MultiSearch this past month worth calling out …

 

Continue reading “Drawdown Occurs (Almost) Every Calendar Year”

Early Cycle Metrics and Expanded MultiSearch Headers

On Thursday, 4 November, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through October 2021. The drop occurred a few days earlier than planned, thanks to Refinitiv including latest month ending data in their daily drop. Going forward, ratings will be posted within 2-3 days of month close, instead of the first Saturday or Sunday.

 

Continue reading “Early Cycle Metrics and Expanded MultiSearch Headers”

Super Bulls, Decadal Metrics, After Tax Ratings, and Adjustable Columns

On Wednesday, 6 October, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through September 2021, the year’s 3rd quarter.

 

Concurrent with the ratings update, two new evaluation periods were added to MultiSearch, nicknamed “Super Bull 1 & 2.” These bulls don’t acknowledge that the steep declines of Black Monday (October 1987) and CV-19 (March 2020) were bears. Both retractions were so short, they just get lumped-in with the long-term gains the bulls delivered, ex post, of course.

 

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Styled Excel Export Option with August Update

On Sunday, 5 September, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through August 2021.

 

On Wednesday, 15 September, Brad Ferguson of Indianapolis-based Halter Ferguson Financial joined our webinar to discuss his new Mega Ratio and how he uses it to quickly glean a list of 100 consistent out-performers, filtered down from 10,000 fund offerings.

 

[On that same day four civilian astronauts were launched into space with a SpaceX Falcon rocket, embarking on a 3-day mission orbiting Earth.]

 

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Mid-Year Update Brings Rolling Batting Averages and Trend Ratings

On Independence Day, Sunday, 4 July, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through June 2021.

 

Thanks to all that participated in our Mid-Year Review webinar on Thursday, 15 July. For your reference, here are links to the briefing charts and video recording.

 

Continue reading “Mid-Year Update Brings Rolling Batting Averages and Trend Ratings”