How do poor performing fund management companies persist? Could be that absolute return is not a concern, that it’s all about risk adjusted return. Could be that some of the funds did well initially, then went south but investors are too stuck to change. Could be that these firms just have strong marketing and, my friend Ed offers, “write good newsletters.” Could be that they are just having a run of bad luck and stuck in an uncooperative and “irrational” market … but given enough time and a return to sanity, the Great Pumpkin will appear.
The March update comprises ratings on 9,296 US mutual funds and ETFs (27,307 all share classes), based on Lipper’s Data Feed Service.
Looking through some of our Pre-Defined Screens …
Among the Best Performing Rookies: AQR Equity Market Neutral R6 (QMNRX, Alternative Equity Market Neutral), NWM Momentum (MOMOX, Flexible Portfolio), 361 Global Long/Short Equity Y (AGAWX, Alternative Long/Short Equity), Catalyst Macro Strategy I (MCXIX, Alternative Global Macro), and ProShares S & P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats (REGL, Mid-Cap Core).
We asked the good folks at Morningstar if they’d generate a list of all five-star funds from ten years ago, then update their star ratings from five years ago and today. I’d first seen this data several years ago when it had been requested by a Wall Street Journal reporter and shared with us. The common interpretation is “it’s not worth it, since five-star funds aren’t likely to remain five-star funds.”
One difference between Morningstar’s results reporting (1-, 3, 5 and 10 year) and ours (up cycle, down cycle, full market cycles plus standard periods) is that theirs contains an invisible chasm. That chasm exists for funds that were around during the 2007-09 market crisis but that do not have a 10 year track record yet. The only thing that Morningstar will report is their records for the past five years or less. No matter how catastrophic their performance during the meltdown, they receive no penalty for it. Their 3- and 5-year return ratings cover only the recent bull market and their star ratings (and risk grades!) are based only on their performance in the good times.
The current full market cycle began in October 2007 as domestic markets peaked just ahead of the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression. Domestic markets hit bottom in early March, 2009, and have rebounded sharply since then.
We were wondering whether there were any “safe” Technology Funds to consider for the potentially turbulent years ahead. We thought we’d start by asking “who did well during the last two crashes?” and seeing if anyone avoided the worst of the bloodshed in both 2000-02 and 2007-09.
Our screener has two functions. The first is to allow side-by-side comparisons of a dozen or more funds over meaningful time periods. The second is to allow you to generate lists of funds whose accomplishments are particularly meaningful to you.
Fund managers are seen, dear friends, as “the walking dead.”
CBS News declared you “a losing bet.” TheStreet.com declared that you’re dead. Joseph Duran asked, curiously, “are you a dinosaur?” Schwab declared that “a great question!” Ric Edelman, a major financial advisor, both widely quoted and widely respected, declares, “The retail mutual fund industry is a dinosaur and won’t exist in 10 or 15 more years, as investors are realizing the incredible opportunity to lower their cost, lower their risks and improve their disclosure through low-cost passive products.” When asked what their parents do for a living, your kids desperately wish they could say “my dad writes apps and mom’s a paid assassin.” Instead they mumble “stuff.” In short, you are no longer welcome at the cool kids’ table.